The 14th Emissions Gap Report has been released. You can read the full report here.
The key messages included in this years report include:
Key Messages:
- World heading for a 2.5-2.9°C temperature rise unless stronger action taken.
- Predicted 2030 emissions must be cut by 28-42% for Paris Agreement goals.
- Strengthening mitigation this decade crucial for achieving Paris Agreement goals.
Alarming Emissions and Temperature Records:
- Record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events globally.
- Global GHG emissions reached a new high of 57.4 GtCO2e in 2022.
- Inequality persists in emissions distribution within and between countries.
Insufficient Mitigation Efforts and Future Projections:
- Current policies limit global warming to 3°C this century.
- Net-zero pledges not credible; 1.5°C goal only 14% likely in the most optimistic scenario.
- Need to cut 2030 emissions by 28% for 2°C goal and 42% for 1.5°C goal.
Progress Since Paris Agreement and Implementation Gap:
- Implementation progress reduces the global implementation gap.
- Nine countries submitted new NDCs; global gap estimated at 1.5 GtCO2e for unconditional NDCs.
- Ramping up implementation this decade crucial for limiting global warming.
Accelerating Low-Carbon Development:
- High-income countries must take rapid, ambitious action and support low-income nations.
- Low- and middle-income countries contribute to emissions but can benefit from low-carbon transitions.
- Extracted fossil fuels exceed carbon budget; transition opportunities for developing nations.
Global Stocktake at COP28 and Future Ambition:
- First Global Stocktake at COP28 informs NDCs for 2025 and targets for 2035.
- Action this decade crucial for achieving long-term temperature goals.
- Global ambition in next NDCs must align with below 2°C and 1.5°C pathways.
Future Reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal:
- Immediate and deep emission cuts required along with carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
- CDR currently includes afforestation, reforestation, and forest management.
- Upscaling CDR requires addressing technical, economic, and political challenges.
- Political action needed: setting CDR priorities, robust monitoring, and accelerating innovation.
